No, I’m not talking about having another beer at the beautiful Belmont Park in New York.  I’m talking about history being made on Saturday, June 9, 2012, as the horse “I’ll Have Another” has a shot at being the next Triple Crown winner.  Can he do it?  Read on.

The last horse to claim this prestigious trophy was Affirmed in 1978, thirty-four years ago.  Not since Big Brown in 2008, Smarty Jones in 2004, and, going way back to, Spectacular Bid in 1979, has any horse had a real shot at being the next Triple Crown winner.  Other horses have won the first two legs, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness Stakes, but none had the ability of these three mentioned horses.  And, they didn’t win the grueling 1 ½ mile race at Belmont.

This is the longest time span ever between Triple Crown winners.  The previous span was twenty-five years, from the 1948 winner Citation, to the undisputed greatest horse to ever step on a race track, the 1973 winner Secretariat.

The field of horses for the 2012 Belmont Stakes has not been finalized as of this writing.  The big money will be on I’ll Have Another to win, and rightfully so.  This horse won both previous races rather convincingly, coming from behind on the stretch, and running hard to pass the leader for the win.  The jockey Mario Gutierrez rode I’ll Have Another masterfully.  They raced in unison.  One brain. One heart.  And when the jock said go, the horse went.  A definite Triple Crown winner.

But………..I don’t think so.  There are several reasons why I say this.

• Belmont is the longest race at 1 ½ miles.
• The stretch is 1097 feet from the last turn to the wire.
• This is the only horse entered that has run all three races in the short span of just five weeks.
• I’ll Have Another has been in the same barn since his arrival the day after Pimlico.
• This Wednesday, all competing horses must move to a new secured stakes barn.
• The NYRA has established new rules, to include blood tests, for the “welfare of the horses”.
• Visitors will be restricted, and the barn will be guarded 24 hours a day.
• This past Thursday, during a morning walk, I’ll Have Another had a rider-less horse race past him at full gallop along the inside rail almost causing a collision.
• Lastly, the trainer Doug O’Neill has been fined, or suspended 15 times over the last 14 years for doping, and will begin a new suspension in California shortly after the Belmont.

There are two winning horses, and maybe one longshot, that have the ability to keep I’ll Have Another from capturing the Triple Crown.

Union Rags, and Dullahan both had problems at the Derby and finished nowhere near their potential.  Their owners, and trainers, decided to rest them, and not run the Preakness.  Now they are fresh and ready to run.

The third horse is Bob Bafferts Paynter.  Baffert decided to rest Bodemeister after finishing second to I’ll Have Another in both the Derby, and the Preakness.  Paynter will have Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard.

I would really like to see one more Triple Crown winner in my lifetime, but I don’t think this is the year.  I hope that I am wrong, but here is my call:

1^st – Dullahan

2^nd – Union Rags

3^rd – I’ll Have Another

4^th – and just out of the money – Paynter

Don’t let my opinions sway your betting decisions.  If you think that I’m full of it, then place your bet on I’ll Have Another.  If you agree with me that he will not win, bet him anyway.  If he wins, you won’t win a lot of money, but you will have a piece of history in your hand.

Til we meet again.

FB   06/04/12